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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd