Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean count of everyday homicides monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate better countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This data was provided by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might obscure days when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.