Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
